Wednesday 20 September 2017

PROBABILITY ( प्रायिकता )

PROBABILITY- in 1993 A.N. Kolmogrov, a Russian mathematician tried succesfully to relate the theory of probability eith the set theory by axiomatic aproch.


Random variables - A real valued function defined on a sample -space is called a randon - variable .

SAMPLE SPACE- A sample space of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment and is denoted by S.

  for example- if a coin is tossed then there are two possibilities either we shall get a head or tail . we denoted here head (H) and tail(T).

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS- All possible outcomes in a trial  are called exhaustive events.

SAMPLE POINT:- Every element of the sample space is called a sample point. and it it is contains finite number of point then its is called finite sample point.for example in a coin H and T.

EVENTS:- Of all the possible outcomes in the sample space of an experiment some outcomes satisfy a specified description , it is called an event and its denoted by E.

CERTAINS AND IMPOSSIBLE EVENTS:- if S is a sample space then S and  Φ are both subset of S and both are events.so S is called certains events and  Φ  is called impossible events.

EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS:- Two wvents are considered equally likely if one of them cannot ve expected in preference to the other.

EXHAUSTIVE EVENT:- All possible outcomes in a trial are called exhaustive events.
for example :- if we trail a coin then the exhaustive events are H and T.

MUTUALLY EVENT OR INCOMPITIBLE EVENT:- Two or more than two evetns are called Mutually exclusive events if there are no element common to these events . 
if E1 and E2 are two mutually exclusive events then E1 =E2 =Φ 

EXAMPLES :- An experiment in which two coins are tossed together fine the sample space.
solve- S={(H,H) (H,T) (T,T) (T,H)}

IF coins tossed tree times then S ={ (HHH, TTT, THH, HHT, HTT, THT,}

SAMPLE OF COMPOUND EVENTS:- If E contains only one elements of the sample space S then E is called simple events  i.e E= {ei}

compound events :- If E contains more than one elements of the sample space S then S is called compound event. 
 E={ei} where i = 1,2,3....n

FORMULLE FOR PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT:- let E be an event of S containing m element of S ie n(E) = m if P(E) is the probability of the event E happening then P(E) =  n(E) /n(S)

COMPLEMENTARY EVENT:- if E be an event then not happining of the event E is called the complementary event of E and is denoted by E'.

and p(E) + p(E') = 1

Q:- find the probability of throwing on even number with a die.
solve :- let S be a sample space and the event of getting an event number be E then 
                 S ={ 1,2,3,4,5,6} and E={2,4,6} 
                 so n(S) = 6 and n(E) = 3 [ for even number]
       therefore , P(E) =  n(E) /n(S) 
                                 = 3/6
                                 = 1/2
Q:- if two coin tossed , find the chance that there should be heads on both.
solve:-  if two coins tossed then sample space is 
             S={(H,H) (H,T) (T,T) (T,H)}
both head have only one condition that is ( H,H)
therefore P(E) =  n(E) /n(S) 
                       = 1/4

Q:- Find the probability of throwing on even number with die.
solve:-let S be the sample space and the event of getting an even number be E then 
              S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} and E={2,4,6}
              n(S) = 6 and n(E) = 3
              therefore the probability of event of happening  p(E)=n(E)/n(S)
                                                                                                  = 3/6
                                                                                                  =1/2 =ans
COMPOSITION OF EVENTS:-
THE EVENT REPRESENTED BY AUB OR A+B:--  IF the event E happens when A happens or B happens then E is denoted by and E is represented by AUB i.e. E=AUB
THE EVENT REPRESENTED BY A  B OR AB:--If The event E happens when the events A and B both happens then the events E is represented by A  B OR AB i.e. E=A  B 
COMPLEMENT OF EVENT A OR THE EVENT A':--  If the event E happpens when the event A does not happen then E is denoted by A'
Theoram :- If E1 and E2 are any two events then P(E1 U E2) = P(E1)+P(E2)-P(E1 E2).
PROOF:-
lets S be the sample space and n be the number of elements in the events in S. 
let l be the number of elements in E1 and m the number of elements in the events E2 
i.e. n(S)= n   n(E2)= l     n(E2)=m
if the events E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive then the E1 E2 is not equal to phy.
let n(E1 E2) = r

clearly,    n(E1U E2) = l+m-r

now the probability of E1 and E2 happening denoted by P(E1 E2) is given by  
p(E1U E2) =     
hence proved